Episode 541: The Invisible Shift, Chipper vs. Jeter, and Other Listener Emails
Date September 24, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam discuss the shift and answer listener emails about instant replay, wild cards, prospect promotions, Chipper vs. Jeter, and more. Topics * Episode 539 follow-up: Umpiring and replay philosophy * Wild card winner championship odds * Prospect promotion methods * NL pitchers using batting eye to improve pitch performance * Correlation between BABIP and shifts * Strong starters vs. bullpens in playoffs * Drafting Chipper Jones vs. Derek Jeter Intro Todd Rundgren, "Chain Letter Banter Sam discusses Ben's recent appearance on Hang Up and Listen. Email Questions * Kyle: "I wanted to ask a broader question based on your discussion of umpiring and replays in Episode 539. Baseball has inadvertently introduced a change in the philosophy of umpiring with added replay. Baseball used to follow a formalism though, much like a legal philosophy, where the truth itself does not matter, but only the following of established principles and rules. For example not all evidence is admissible in court and people will get off on procedural technicalities. IN baseball not all evidence has historically been used to make calls. As umpire Bill Klem famously put it, 'It ain't nothing till I call it'. Now with the introduction of replay MLB is theoretically interested less in a formalism philosophy but more in obtaining the truth. Therefore they should be using every tool at their disposal to achieve this but as mentioned in the earlier podcast they still are not, as umpires are not allowed to view the stadium scoreboards for replay. MLB seems to be stuck in between philosophies, not understanding what direction they are headed. My question then is which do you think baseball should be more concerned with? The traditional formalism method of umpiring or a newer method of using every tool available to discover the true outcome of a play?" * Eric: "How big a disadvantage does the winner of the wild card game have in the rest of the playoffs? Very small sample size but I don't believe they've ever won a series. How many years of data would we need before we could be reasonably confident in any claim?" * Ricky: "For every organization there are 30 different ways to develop prospects. The two main ways are AA to the majors, the other is AA to AAA and then the majors. The Marlins mainly do AA to the majors, most notably with Stanton and Yelich. Which way is the most effective to bring up a player in your opinion?" * Steven: "I was intrigued by Jake Arrieta's quotation in this article. Arrieta said that moving to the NL and having to hit has influenced his pitch selection while pitching. The conventional wisdom with which I agree is that pitching in the NL is easier because you get the pitcher instead of the DH. Is it possible that a pitcher can learn enough from his own plate appearances that he can improve his approach on the mound?" * Zack (Los Angeles, CA): "The two teams in LA seem to be opposites of sorts, especially their pitching. The Angels have made changes to their bullpen and now have one of the best bullpens in the game but their starting pitching is really quite questionable. Weaver looks OK, Shumaker has been good but now looks hurt, CJ Wilson has been terribly inconsistent, Santiago even more so, Richards and Skaggs done for the season. On the other hand the Dodgers have a good rotation (assuming they get healthier). Kershaw, Greinke, maybe Ryu, Haren, but their bullpen is bad and seems to be getting worse. So my question is, going into the playoffs would you rather have the Angels pitching or the Dodgers pitching and why?" * Nicholas: "I wanted to know if you had to choose between drafting Chipper and drafting Jeter, knowing everything about their career and numbers ahead of time, which would you choose? Assume that they would stay in the organization their entire career and you could build your club around them." Play Index * While there has been an increase in shifts, BABIP league-wide has not decreased. BABIP this year is .299. In 2013 it was .297, and in 2011 it was .295. * Sam thinks that this is due to the fact that batters are hitting the ball harder and because of base/out states where shifts are not possible. * Sam uses the Play Index to see where 2014 BABIPs for specific base/out states rank historically (since 1988). * Ultimately he did not find any data to support his hypothesis. The 2014 league BABIP was not higher or lower in the context of historical rankings during base/out states where a shift would be expected. Notes * Sam thinks that the current MLB replay policy is part of a transition the game will be making over several years, and that many of the current issues with the replay system will be address and resolved eventually. * AA teams are now more seen as prospect rich than in years past. There have not been actual significant shifts in the realized talent gap. AA has about 75% the talent level of MLB, whereas AAA is close to 80%. However as Sam notes the style of play varies. * Both Ben & Sam would choose to have strong starters over a strong bullpen going into the playoffs. * Sam thinks that even if his defense was below replacement level, it may have been a positive for the Yankees to have that position locked up and be able to build around him. In contrast, he also prevented better players (like Alex Rodriguez) from playing the position. * Both Ben & Sam would choose to draft Chipper Jones. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 541: The Invisible Shift, Chipper vs. Jeter, and Other Listener Emails * The Second-Hardest Part of Baseball by Rocco DeMaro * Ryan Howard Laughs Last by Sam Miller Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes